Comment of the day: The trouble with projections

Lincoln Square/Ravenswood and nearby Andersonville share many characteristics(see above) that make them great places to live. Two of my favorite neighborhoods. Pick Andersonville up and move it east closer to H2O and it would be difficult for me to picture a better hood. Of course the rest of Edgewater nearer the lake is improving and has some of the better characteristics of its Swedish named neighbor.

As for your reference to the 2005 mid decade census data I suggest reading that with a big clog full of salt. The track record for mid decade census data is only slightly better than George W. Bush’s track record as a peacemaker or my record as a husband. Two wars and counting for both of us now that I think about it.

In 1995, and up until the 2000 census data actually came out, those who relied on it predicted a significant population loss for Chicago as a whole and also largely missed some significant other changes citywide.

From my BOG perspective, boots on the ground, Andersonville is NOT becoming more hispanic. Actually the exact opposite is happening. From my meager study of the overall data the authors seem to predict rising hispanic population in most city neighborhoods to include the neighborhoods north of downtown and near or just west of the lake. It seems to me they appear to be using some city wide number/factor to predict rising hispanic population in most hoods.

It’s almost as if they say “let’s add x percent” everywhere plus or minus. While it would not surprise me if the overall city hispanic population continues to grow., likely at a much slower pace than in the recent past, the growth will come in areas on the NW and SW sides. Like other groups that came before hispanics are now making their way to the burbs or never living in the city in the first place.

The north lakefront and north side gentrifying neighborhoods are seeing a decreasing hispanic population. Those folks are largely either moving west or leaving the city entirely and not being replaced by others of a similar background.

– IrishPirate, on the pitfalls of relying on five- and 10-year demographics projections, especially when talking about neighborhoods like Andersonville.

If you haven’t watched our Andersonville drive-around, give it a look-see. And if you have any insight about the neighborhood, feel free to chime in with your thoughts.