Comments ( 20 )

• So does that mean that the party is on again?

  Andale andale, arriba arriba!!

  (insert salsa music here)

• New constuction homes? What about the existing homes contracts? That’s a bigger share of the market.

• I’ve heard bubblings of this too. Could just be a dead cat bounce as some buyers figure that anything that’s still on the market now from last summer won’t get much lower. Could also be the never-really-unrealistically-hot Chicago market picking back up.

• I believe it’s “back on” when the overall sales #’s post positive for 3 consecutive months. Once is an abberration, twice is a coincidence, thrice is a trend.

  I’m not going to listen to a couple of realtors about contracts on a handful of spec homes. Contracts don’t mean a thing anyway, they’ve been cancelling at record rates. The NAR should stop using contracts signed as their reference for sales and start getting honest about the actual sales #’s.

• It’s the “holiday rush!” If it’s absolutely necessary for tax or other reasons to buy/sell NOW, people are going to do it!

• George is making me upset. George, I don’t listen to other Realtors either. I listen to my clients and consumers… and it’s go time.

  Leases are up in March, April, and May. People want to have a place a month before the end of their lease to paint, improve and move in.

  Anon is right about taxes too.

  Look, regardless of overall numbers and trends, the real buying demographic is in my car looking at properties now to buy soon. Just this weekend at the open house Joe Zekas mentioned above, I met three groups of clients that walked in out of 17 degree weather. All of them discussed their needs. I told them exactly how we could work together and asked them to visit my web site and blog.

  All three registered on my site as a client…all three have made appointments with me this week. This type of urgency has not happened for a month… but hits on our site, my site and open house exploded in the last week.

  If you’re an agent or seller, and you don’t capatlize on this traditional time for an upswing in entrants to the market… you’re just lazy. George, I’ll see you in St. Thomas (or the Hamptons with Susan’s parents) after my closings this winter and spring!

• Congrats Eric! You’re you’re bucking the trends but I’ll wait to sell the overall #’s. There are suckers rallies in every market…including housing.

  Apparently Lereah’s mantra of “It’s a buyers market!” has brought in the last of the greater fools. Funny thing is I’ve never heard Lereah or any other realtor tell people anything other than it’s a buyers market.

• George,

  You’re flat out wrong on the facts, and simply unfair to David Lereah, who’s the NAR’s chief economist. The NAR’s economists generally garner respect for their opinions.

  See, for example, Lereah’s recent presentation at the NAR New Orleans convention, in which he predicted that the worst of the housing market was over for only 74% of the country and that those areas would be “sluggish.”

• Don’t underestimate the fact that 30yr fixed mortgages are now hovering right around 6% – yummy!

• George… median home prices in Chicago: Up 1.7%
  Rex Grossman’s quarter back rating yesterday: 1.3

  Housing wins!

  BTW, my clients are traditional home buyer… wanting roots etc…. not speculators. You might hurt their feelings calling them suckers 🙂

• Joe,

  Lereah works for realtors. His opinions must be viewed with great skepticism.

  Melissa,

  “Remember that affordability is not just about interest rates. It’s also about prices.” – David Lereah, all knowing god of real estate

  Eric,

  Subtract the “incentives” that have been used to sell the homes (which the NAR should do to give a true value of the homes worth) and the new # has a “-” in front of it.

• So that Spec homes well over a million dollars got a few walk throughs means that the Average home market is getting better.

  You can’t possibly believe that, right?

• I believe what I reported – and made no claims about anything else.

• And Eric, if they are getting shown your property on Paulina that means to me they are suckers. 315k for a home purchased in 2003 for 245k?

  I’ll give ya props if you sell it, you will have earned it. But anyone who would pay that isn’t doing their homework right now. 30% appreciation in three years? On a (probably small) Condo in Ravenswood?

  How much is the rent right down the street? 1000 bucks? 1200? Maybe?

  I went ahead and checked on the reader, and sure enough here are the Ravenswood listings under 2000.00/month:

  I mean this is an ad for an apartment at 4303 Paulina for 1595/month:
  HEART OF RAVENSWOOD
  HEART OF RAVENSWOOD at 4303 N Paulina. Huge, sunny, 2000 sq ft 3 br, 3 ba, 2 level duplex. Hardwood…

  Please tell me what I am missing? I want nothing more than for you folks to keep making a living, and I’m sure you are very good at selling homes. But when you can get 40% more space in the same neighborhood, at what 25-40% less cost (per month) what else would you call someone ready to jump in on that deal?

  I’d call them a sucker.

• “I mean this is an ad for an apartment at 4303 Paulina for 1595/month”

  Good point H. If you take that $315K property and make a 20% DP you finance $252K. At the current 6.14 30yr fixed you have $1533 payment and that DOESN’T included taxes, HOA’s or insurance. Added those and you’re around $2300/month. And that’s only if you put 20% down. Very few people are doing that anymore at these prices. Figure a 10% DP and your monthly PITI is $2500 or so. You’re over 50% more to buy than to rent. That rent to own ratio is a tad askew.

• “G and H”…I have a another second showing tonight… I’ll let you guys know. Thanks for the math lesson… I think I’ll feature it on my brochures.

  The only “true value” I know is the price the home eventually trades at. Besides, many factors go into the value proposition of owning a home rather than renting. The value to live and own in that neighborhood, on that street, in that particular unit will mean something to someone.

  My research tells me we are the lowest priced, best quality comparable unit in the area… all things considered. If you want to own a 2 bed, 2 bath unit with parking, nice finishes and top floor etc in that area-and people do- it will cost you over $315K. The new conversions coming on in the area with the same realtive features and size will sell for more. Markets the market. Suckers or not.

  Back to work…

• Fair enough Eric, I agree and wish you luck.

• Hilarious thanks, I’ll never turn down luck… do you have a site to link?

• “The only “true value” I know is the price the home eventually trades at.”

  I’ll agree with you on that just as long as you’re singing that same song when the prices are heading south.

• I hear ya George. The thing is there is a price where this particular unit would sell in a day (and the client would profit nicely + equity from paying down the principle). For things to go backward on this unit, well, we’d ALL be in trouble.

  I can’t speak for those who really over paid or bought on speculation. But people get killed in every market. Even going up-side-down on cars all the time! Like, buying the Mercedes instead of the Camry and screwing the next ten years of your life as you pay for the interest etc…

  I don’t see this market as gloom or doom for those who buy because they don’t want to rent anymore, and would like some roots etc… and it is exspensive where I’m selling. People are clustering and I don’t see that changing in many non-speculative neighborhoods. These prices will stay relatively tight. People won’t become millionairs in many of these neighborhoods off their 2 bed, 1 bath condo, but they should see positive gains and actually enjoy where they live too. With a little homework and resolve, it shouldn’t be too hard to NOT over pay.

  Although, in my hood, if you bought a 2 bed, 1 bath without parking or a nice deck… only two years ago or less, it’s gonna be tight today. Better stay put and pay down, pay down like the old days!