Case-Shiller numbers send mixed signals

“Finally, we’re seeing a touch of moderation… This is the kind of thing one might see if we’re beginning to see a bottom. I would not run out and celebrate, but I would not dig the bunker any deeper.”

David M. Blitzer, chairman of Standard & Poor‘s index committee, talking to The New York Times about the February 2009 Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.

“It is unlikely that we are anywhere near a bottom in nationwide home prices.”

Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez, quoted in the same article.

Home prices continued to decline nationwide in February, albeit at a shallower pace than in January. Locally, overall home prices dropped by a greater percentage from January to February than in the 10-city and 20-city composites but at a slightly lower rate year-over-year. Chicago condo values fell at a greater rate month-to-month and year-over-year than in January but still saw shallower declines than overall home values both locally and nationally.

Listed below are the changes in home value from January to February (with seasonally adjusted values in parentheses), as well as changes from February ’08 to February ’09:

Chicago home values:

  • Month-to-month: -3.4 percent (-3 percent)
  • Year-over-year: -17.6 percent

Chicago condo values:

  • Month-to-month: -3 percent (-2.7 percent)
  • Year-over-year: -11.1 percent

Ten-city home values:

  • Month-to-month: -2.1 percent (-1.9 percent)
  • Year-over-year: -18.8 percent

Twenty-city home values:

  • Month-to-month: -2.2 percent (-1.9 percent)
  • Year-over-year: -18.6 percent
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