The Standard & Poor’s Web site simply won’t load for me today, so all I can tell you about the December ’09 Case-Shiller Home Price Indices is what I’ve read in the Sun-Times. Home prices in Chicago dropped 1.6 percent from November to December, and 7.2 percent from December ’08 to December ’09.
The month-to-month decline represented the biggest drop in value among all 20 metropolitan areas covered in the indices. Nationwide, prices dropped just 0.2 percent from November to December.
As has been said here before, it is a great time to buy. 🙂
Slightly off topic, but does anyone know if the predicted 10% decline in home values throughout 2010 is factoring the loss of first time home buyers credited and the potential rise in interest rates? My thought is that when interest rates begin rising that there will be downward pressure on pricing.
Dan,
Who’s predicting that 10% price drop?
Predicting home price trends is an almost complete waste of time and mental energy. Too many variables; too little relevance to any individual’s situation at a particular point in time.
Most home buyers have something pretty specific in mind – e.g. a two-bedroom with a split-bedroom layout, a balcony and a south view in a full-amenity high-rise in Streeterville. Predicting price levels months out even at that detailed a level is near impossible – and it’s totally impossible with regard to units that may be unique or in very limited supply.
Real estate markets are micro-markets, subject to unpredictable fluctuations in supply and demand driven by an array of factors of which interest rates are only one.
Speculation about price declines is the life blood of CribChatter. I’d suggest you head on over there if you want tro engage in the pointless exercise of predicting home price levels.
Joe,
You caught me reading that damn CNN.com again.
Here I was actually turning to you for some sort of historic view of housing prices compared to interest rates over the past 20 years. Sorry for thinking that you could actual provide some hard data and analysis on the subject.
Dan
Dan,
Looks like I caught you mischaracterizing the CNN article – which projects wide variance in housing price declines across different metropolitan areas. Metro Chicago is projected to decline 4.3% in 2010, with an increase in 2011. And from those numbers I’ve learned nothing useful about any particular metro Chicago sub-market.
A historic view of housing prices compared to interest rates? A silly exercise that I’m not going to waste time indulging.
Take your CNN article’s projections as an example. Interest rates will be relatively uniform across the US next year, but prices in different metro areas are projected in the CNN article to range from a modest increase in Pittsburgh to a 33% decline in Miami. How does that variance relate to invariant interest rates?
With all due respect, the housing price vs interest rate discussion is more appropriate at CribChatter, where people are silly enough to take the issue seriously.
I find it hard to believe that a year-over-year statistic is really a strong representation of the overall market. If there was bad news on the stock market one month, then 10% fewer potential home buyers would take the plunge into buying a house. There you go, the numbers are off, despite the fact that just as many people are ready to buy. They’ll just buy the next month instead, but now the data is skewed.
Sam Goody,
I’ve deleted the link to your Web site.
Many lease-to-own come-ons, especially those touted by no-name proprietors, are merely scams that consumers should avoid.