Chicago’s population fell by more than 200,000 to 2,695,598 people over the course of the last decade, due in large part to an outflux of African-American residents, according to new Census data trickling out through Crain’s.
At the same time, the population of the metropolitan area as a whole grew by about 210,000 people, with major growth in Kane and Will counties helping to offset a decline in Cook County.
Crain’s will have more details and links to official tables in the coming hours.
That takes Chicago’s population below the 1920 level.
The only thing that can save the city from farther decline is to greatly speed the process of gentrification. The city government, if it wants to keep Chicago from becoming another Detroit, has to start standing up to the NIBYS when they oppose dense developments and high rise construction.
CaptainVideo,
Given the state of the market the NIMBYs aren’t going to have much to protest in the next few years.
Do you know anyone who’s left the city in search of greater density?
Detroit tried the downtown density gambit. Hpw’d that work out for Detroit?
I was in Detroit in the summer of 2009. Downtown was largely still deserted but the riverfront looks great. 😛
I don’t think Chicago has a lack of available high rises. See Vetro, Library Tower, Sky Bridge, etc. Chicago needs to attract new business. More jobs = more residents.
“Given the state of the market the NIMBYs aren’t going to have much to protest in the next few years.”
That is true with respect to condos, but rental apartment construction is picking up.
The developers, who want to build dense and high rise projects are the good guys here who, if allowed to do so can help reverse the loss of population and tax base. The short-sighted NIMBYS are the bad guys who are strangling the city. Look, for example, at the Gateway project. A site that close to downtown screams for dense, high-rise developments. And if they build them, they will rent.
“More jobs = more residents”
Not so. More jobs = more commuters.
“Detroit tried the downtown density gambit. Hpw’d that work out for Detroit?”
Chicago is not Detroit. The Loop is gaining population and the Near South probably had the fastest percentage growth of any of the community areas. When dense construction is permitted, the new construction can be rented until the condo market recovers.
CaptainVideo,
I’m as anti-NIMBY as almost anyone else, but NIMBYs are near the bottom on a list of Chicago’s problems.
The much larger issue is that, in too many neighborhoods, NIMBY increasingly means there’s Nobody In My Back Yard.
This is BECAUSE of gentrification. As minorities with larger families move out to the suburbs in search of cheaper housing and better schools, their 2br apartmnets that had a family of four or five is now condo owned/occupied by a single resident. While this isnt a fact everyweher, it is an anicdote of a reason why the city is losing poulation. Detriot is COMPLETELY different. In detriot, white flight caused the population to plummet.
” As minorities with larger families move out to the suburbs in search of cheaper housing and better schools, their 2br apartmnets that had a family of four or five is now condo owned/occupied by a single resident.”
The main areas that are genrifying are GAINING population, not losing them. The Near South community area is the most spectacular example. Some areas in which gentrification is not yet far enough along, such as Rogers Park, so that multi-story apartments are not yet being built, have lost some population. What is needed in these areas is to replace the two story bungalos with multi-story apartments and condos, which means that the opposition of the NIMBYS has to be suppressed.
But most of the loss of black population is the result of blacks who can afford to do so moving out of ghetto areas to get away from the crime, the drugs, and the gangs. The same is true for Hispanics. The tearing down of the high-rise public housing is another factor in the loss of black population.
Captain,
I think you’d be hard-pressed to find another major city in the Northeast U.S. that is as developer-friendly as Chicago.
The amount of residential development during the Daley II era has been staggering. The South and West Sides have sadly missed out, but near south and west and most of the north & northwest parts of the city saw a large building boom that I don’t believe any city that came of age pre-WWII has come close to replicating. NIMBYs? Ha! Be thankful you don’t have Community Boards!
Headline in the SunTimes:
“Ald. Daley won’t commit on Lincoln Park hospital plan”
On the Skyscarper.com site:
“A development team has reduced the size of a planned commercial project in Greektown in hopes of getting support to rezone the property.”
In light of the loss of population that the city is suffering, developers need to be pressured to UPSIZE their projects, not downsize them. I hope that mayor Emanuel will have the guts to make the aldermen stop pandering to the NIMBYS and put the common good of the city above the myopic and selfish interests of the NIMBYS.
The census figures that are now out show that the only parts of the city in which there was a rapid rise in population was where a large amount of high and medium rise construction took place. One thing that must be done to prevent farther declines of the city is to stop the NIMBYS from preventing or restricting this type of construction in too many areas of the city.
I think you are confusing causation and correlation. This is not the field of dreams, if you build it they will not automatically come.
Haven’t we learned anything from the bubble burst? The last thing the city needs is additional empty high-rises. Let’s first convert all the empty condos and/or office buildings into apartment buildings.
As for jobs leading to more commuters, take a look at the Kennedy these days. The reverse commute is worse than the traditional commute. People are still living in Chicago but commuting to the suburbs for their jobs.
The Greek town project is a perfect example of why not to build without planning. Does that neighborhood really need a 4th grocery store in a 6 block radius. Does it need a massive influx of housing, when Sky-bridge sits empty?
Mr. Pibb,
SkyBridge is not empty.
I didn’t mean literally empty. I believe that Sky-bridge is however largely unoccupied. Another example would be rd 659.
I’m sure the 207 people who own condos at Skybridge would be interested to hear that. One North LLC is listed as the taxpayer for 16 of the building’s 223 units.
Few listings at Redfin include a figure in the “% Owner Occupied” field, but one listing at Skybridge says it’s 78%. That’s a number entered by the listing agent, of course — MRED and Redfin aren’t verifying it, so don’t take it as gospel — but if true, that’s more than enough to discredit any claim of being “largely unoccupied.”
Largely unoccupied?
This will come as news to the developer – a high school classmae of mine – who thought he’d sold all but the few units he kept as an investment.
“if you build it they will not automatically come”
If you build it (in an area amenable to gentrification and only limited parts of the city qualify), they will rent.
Obviously gentrification will help reverse the population decline only if it is gentrification WITH DENSE DEVELOPMENT. Gentrification, where the gentrifiers only replace the previous residents in existing buildings will actually reduce population, since, as pointed out above, you have singles or childless couples replacing large families.
“Does that neighborhood really need a 4th grocery store in a 6 block radius.”
If the market supports them all, yes. Competition benefits consumers.
“why not to build without planning”
Stores should be able to locate at any location zoned commercial at which they conclude there is a market for their products without being dictated to by planners.
“Does it need a massive influx of housing, when Sky-bridge sits empty?”
In any case, Sky-bridge is a condo. New rental buildings (in the areas amenable to gentrification) are renting well. During the condo boom the ratio of condo apartments to rental apartments got badly out of balance. This problem is now correcting itself.
(Most of the areas in the city are not amenable to gentrification. Only limited areas are)