Comments ( 8 )

• And some counter-punching.

  From Q4 2006 to Q4 2007 median Cook County home sale prices rose 4% to $260,000, and average sale prices increased 9.7% to $348,731, according to the same IAR report.

  Although there’s little doubt that housing sales slowed substantially from Q4 2006 to Q4 2007, the IAR numbers only reflect Realtor-affiliated MLS activity. The downturn may – we don’t have enough data to know – partly reflect a declining market share for MLSNI.

  Spend a little time on Google and you’ll find a great deal of skepticism about the validity of RealtyTrac’s foreclosure data. Are the numbers up? Yes.

  It’s worth mentioning that the RealtyTrac numbers relate to the Chicago area, not to the “Windy City” – a term that Chicagoans rarely use but limit to the City of Chicago when they do.

• “From Q4 2006 to Q4 2007 median Cook County home sale prices rose 4% to $260,000, and average sale prices increased 9.7% to $348,731, according to the same IAR report.”

  Skeptics always use this statistic. Yes, average and median sale prices are rising, because the rich are always going to buy, but the low/moderate income buyers are sitting on the sideline. This hardly means that prices are stable or rising (if thats what you are getting at).

• Alan,

  I’m not getting at anything related to the market – it is what it is.

  My point really went to the selective approach this post had to pulling data from the reports – only the negative aspects were reported. With all the recent focus on falling prices, one legitimate view is that the real news in the IAR data is the evidence that prices are still increasing despite the slowdown in sales.

  A modest change in the median price level doesn’t much support your theory that the rich are the ones buying – $260k is not the price level the rich buy at.

  I don’t have numbers to back this up, but anecodatlly I’ve been hearing that the high end of the market, at least in several North Shore suburbs, has slowed much more than the lower end. The rich do not, in fact, always buy. Mister Trump can verify that for you if you’d like.

• Look on the bright side – at least it’s not as bad as California.

• UrbanChicago,

  And in California they have Detroit to cheer them up.

• Joe, the data you quoted suggest that recent sales have skewed toward the higher incomes–the mean increase was much higher than the median increase (are those inflation-adjusted, by the way?). In any case, none of that matters in the slightest. If only half as many computers (arbitrary hypothetical example) are being sold as a year ago, it is no consolation that the price of each one increased 5%. It doesn’t take great math skills to realize that overall sales are down. I am just not understanding why we should care where the price is if the properties are not selling.

• Abner,

  For nigh onto two years now we’ve had many comments here to the effect that prices are plunging, plummeting, dropping wildly, etc.

  Sales have retreated – sharply – from the record high levels of several years ago. But quite a few homes are still selling.

  If you’re one of the folks who are waiting to buy until prices come down it’s worth noting that thus far, on average, you’ve been waiting for Godot while home prices increase. A variety of factors – including lower interest rates – are keeping Chicagoland prices from falling across the board. Will that continue? Who knows?

  You don’t think buyers care when they guess wrong about where prices are headed?

• Here on the ground, I have bought and re-sold a few condos for clients in the last two years. Some went up, some have sold for a loss.

  Most folks who have owned for over three years are doing fine. Although, it is difficult to determine if they will sell at the last highest “comp” in the smae building.

  On another note, if prices are dropping, then why do I keep seeing Lakeview duplex downs selling at record prices for that type of dwelling? I’ve also seen a couple top floor Lakeview re-sale units sell for new construction prices of the last couple years. (I know, because they are some of my listing’s competition).

  It is also damn near impossible for me to find a decent two bed, one bath with parking in Lakeview for under $350K… and I barely found this for clients two years ago… that market has gone up.

  I think some of the sharp drop in sales can be attributed to those low end buyers that got into the game buying into large, crappy conversions in “up-and-coming” neighborhoods. Those type of buyers and sales have vanished in my experience.

  I think that buyer is gone. However, get something decent in a good location, and most people in the City are doing well, enjoying their home and can expect to sell for a little more.