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Home prices up nationally, down in Chicago metro

by Joe Zekas on 11/6/12

CoreLogic today released its September Home Price Index (HPI®) report.

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 5 percent in September 2012 compared to September 2011. This change represents the biggest increase since July 2006 and the seventh consecutive increase in home prices nationally on a year-over-year basis. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices decreased by 0.3 percent in September 2012 compared to August 2012*. The HPI analysis from CoreLogic shows that all but seven states are experiencing year-over-year price gains.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationwide also increased on a year-over-year basis by 5 percent in September 2012 compared to September 2011. On a month-over-month basis excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 0.5 percent in September 2012 compared to August 2012, the seventh consecutive month-over-month increase. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that October 2012 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to rise by 5.7 percent on a year-over-year basis from October 2011 and fall by 0.5 percent on a month-over-month basis from September 2012 as sales exhibit a seasonal slowdown going into the winter. Excluding distressed sales, October 2012 house prices are poised to rise 6.3 percent year-over-year from October 2011 and by 0.2 percent month-over-month from September 2012. The CoreLogic Pending HPI is a proprietary and exclusive metric that provides the most current indication of trends in home prices. It is based on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data that measure price changes for the most recent month.

“Home price improvement nationally continues to outpace our expectations, growing five percent year-over-year in September, the best showing since July 2006,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “While prices on a month-over-month basis are declining, as expected in the housing off-season, most states are exhibiting price increases. Gains are particularly large in former housing bubble states and energy-industry concentrated states.”

“Home prices are responding to better market fundamentals, such as reduced inventories and improved buyer demand,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “So far this year, we’re seeing clear signs of stabilization and improvement that show promise for a gradual recovery in the residential housing market.”

Home Prices in Chicago-Joliet-Naperville Decrease
In Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 2.9 percent September 2012 compared to September 2011. On a month-over-month basis, home prices, including distressed sales, decreased by 1.0 percent in September 2012 compared to August 2012.

Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices increased by 1.8 percent in September 2012 compared to September 2011 and increased by 0.4 percent* in August 2012 compared to August 2011. On a month-over-month basis, excluding distressed sales, the CoreLogic HPI indicates home prices increased by 0.5 percent in September 2012 compared to August 2012.

Highlights as of September 2012:

  • Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Arizona (+18.7 percent), Idaho (+13.1 percent), Nevada (+11.0 percent), Hawaii (+8.9 percent) and Utah (+8.7 percent).
  • Including distressed sales, the five states with the greatest home price depreciation were: Rhode Island (-3.5 percent), Illinois (-2.3 percent), New Jersey (-1.8 percent), Alabama (-1.3 percent) and Delaware (-0.5 percent).
  • Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Arizona (+14.0 percent), Idaho (+10.5 percent), Nevada (+9.5 percent), Montana (+8.5 percent) and California (+8.4 percent).
  • Excluding distressed sales, this month only four states posted home price depreciation: Alabama (-3.1 percent), New Jersey (-1.6 percent), Delaware (-1.4 percent) and Rhode Island (-1.3 percent).
  • Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to September 2012) was -27.0 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -20.4 percent.
  • The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, are Nevada (-53.9 percent), Florida (-44.7 percent), Arizona (-41.7 percent), California (-37.2 percent) and Michigan (-35.0 percent).
  • Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, 18 are showing year-over-year declines in September, nine fewer than in August.
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