and there was great rejoicing.

Doesn't look much like Wicker Park to me, but hey what do I know I don't have a degree in urban planning.

IrishPirate,
If it weren't for the fact that somebody went and knocked down most of the industrial buildings around there a few years ago, it would look somewhat like Olde Wicker Parke. Of course, it doesn't have to look like Wicker Park to be like Wicker Park, as you would know if you had a fancy urban planning degree.

Joe, I don't know what your level of exposure is to this part of East Pilsen, but it has definitely been changing fast. I think Podmajersky is probably actually holding the neighborhood BACK from where it might otherwise be at this point; there are a whole bunch of galleries on Halsted but not a damn thing else due to the Podmonopoly, and partially for that reason there's not that much activity there. But it's still a vast world of difference from that 18th and Oakley guy whose YouTube video you so gleefully posted some time back.

Also, Joe, your bile and contempt for urban planning is confusing and frankly kind of provincial. Just because planning doesn't amount to much in Chicago doesn't mean it's irrelevant everywhere. You ever done any business in West Coast cities?

Abner,

when you use the spelling "olde" and work in the word "provincial" into a discussion you just lost the discussion.

Get back to me in a few weeks after you figure out what I am alluding to. Alcohol might speed the process.

ABner,

Do San Francisco, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara and Los Angeles count as West Coast cities? If they do, then my time spent there adds up to something between 18 months and 2 years over a 30-year span and more than 150 trips. I've spent only insignificant amounts of time in Portland (a delightful place where planning has had an impact) and Seattle.

My business there was real-estate related: real estate advertising clients / newspapers and a chain of radio stations I represented as an attorney, plus some miscellaneous legal work for business clients in La Jolla.

The climate is much more hostile to developers on the West Coast and planners do have more sway there because of the overriding importance and scarcity of water and a greater concern for the natural environment than you'll find elsewhere.

That's not to concede that planners accomplish much of anything positive there. "Urban planning" and California cities are not phrases that roll trippingly off the tongue.

My bias - and it's there - started 40 years ago with a love for Jane Jacobs' approach to cities and an aversion to Robert Moses' approach, and not much that I've seen has shaken it since.

Calling my approach "provincial" says a lot more about you than it does about me. Believe it or not, it's possible to be anti-planning from a base of knowledge and experience.

As to East Pilsen, I most recently spent a total of about 2 days there about a year ago, walking virtually every block of the area. Over a 20-year span the changes have been minimal.

IrishPirate,
Geez, we can't all be as clever as you all the time.

Joe,
I of course acknowledge that as a developer (or former developer, whatever) you have (had) conflicting interests with planners, so I would expect you to have a negative opinion of them, and I wouldn't fault you for defending your interests. What I was amazed at was your sneering insistence that they're irrelevant. I was just pointing out that they may be irrelevant in Chicago–although I would argue that schools of planning absolutely influence what gets built here, whether through laws or through community organizations, but that's a point of legitimate debate–but they're certainly central to a lot of other cities in this country. Especially, as you note, Portland and Seattle, and other West Coast cities to varying degrees.

I am surprised that you attribute your hatred of planners to your love for Jane Jacobs, considering that one of the dominant schools of urban planning today treats The Death and Life basically as a recipe book, and as a result favors mixed-use, discourages street-facing dead space, etc. I'm certainly glad to have people lobbying developers on some of these things.

As for East Pilsen: you talk about having your "boots on the ground" there like it's the damn moon, but the data don't lie. The farther east in Pilsen you go, the higher the percentage of the population that is white, and this population has been going up since 1990. In the census tracts east of Morgan the non-Hispanic white population was anywhere from one-fifth to one-third of the total in 2000, and casual empiricism (nowhere near as casual as yours, though) suggests it has continued to go up since then. 20 years ago it was solid gang country at least to Racine, probably all the way to Halsted. You have to have no idea what you're talking about to claim that hasn't changed.

Yeah, it is not going to be Wicker Park anytime very soon because of fundamental differences, and yeah, neighborhood change could slow down or reverse cyclically, but I don't see why you have this urge to put a neighborhood down after you take one small step for a man into it.

One more thing about the data: racial changes obviously don't say everything about neighborhood change; Hispanic students, artists, and other younger people have also been changing the face of Pilsen slowly. The business mix in the neighborhood is changing too.

Abner,

your "one small step for a man" crack was good.

I would also generally agree with your comments on the eastern end of Pilsen.

Now I must take one giant leap toward my local takeout chicken place.

Abner,

Enlighten me. What did I say that "put a neighborhood down?" I'm missing it. Your characterization is unfair.

Where did I say or imply that I "hate" planners? I'm missing that too.

I had no encounters with planners with regard to any of my developments. But then I'm old and perhaps forgetful, so enlighten me as to where I did and exactly how that biased my opinion.

You say: "In the census tracts east of Morgan the non-Hispanic white population was anywhere from one-fifth to one-third of the total in 2000, and casual empiricism (nowhere near as casual as yours, though) suggests it has continued to go up since then."

Casual empiricism - is that the same as pulling it out of your ear? Or wishful thinking?

The US Census Bureau numbers for 2005 for the tracts in question don't support you, except as to the easternmost tract. The population of that tract is so small that the increase in the NonHispanic white population amounts to 3 people. The tract bordered on the west by Halsted shows a 14 percent decline in the NonHispanic white population from 2000 to 2005. And one and all alike, regardless of their origin, rushed to embrace the census taker.

My version of the Census data doesn't have any tract bordered by Morgan in Pilsen. Send me the URL to your version so that I can make my approach as uncasual as yours.

As to academic planners' approach to Jane Jacobs as a "recipe book" … that phrase summarizes much of that's wrong with planners. Mix a little of this and a little of that and "poof" a city.

Get your boots out over all of East Pilsen. Pieces of it resemble "the damn moon" more than they resemble Wicker Park.

The unofficial Yo definition of the boundaries of Pilsen seems to be the Chicago River on the south and east, 16th Street on the north and Damen Avenue on the west." The River runs as far east as 300 at that point.

One UIC source takes it as far west as Western Avenue.

Personally I think taking it that far east is wrong. At that point you are only about 300 West in the city numbering system. Just west of Wells street if it extended to that point at 16th.

That ain't Pilsen to me. Railroadville? Emptyville. Soon to be an extension of the South Loop perhaps?

I'd start Pilsen at Halsted and then go west to Damen or Western. It also seems to extend to roughly 3000 south. I dunno. Some of those arguable boundaries seem stretched to me.

However, any reasonable definition of Pilsen would include Morgan Street. I get to define reasonable.

So have at it as the other cantankerous thread hopefully died.

We also have an official "East Pilsen" set of boundaries: Chicago River to 16th St, Chicago River to Halsted St (800 W). You could take it west to Morgan just as easily.

The locals, we're told, once called everything east of Halsted East Pilsen. It does have a distinct flavor, and it's also within the official "Lower West Side" boundaries..

Joe,
Sorry if the joke was too obscure. Casual empiricism is a term used to describe Keynes's method of observing economic behavior. The term is used self-effacingly by economists when they are talking about things they suspect are true but haven't shown.

Morgan is the boundary between tracts 3103 and 3104 in the 2000 census according to this hideous URL (you asked):

[NOTE: URL deleted because length caused display problems]

Historical or "official" lines between Pilsen "proper" and East Pilsen don't mean that much because nowadays when people say East Pilsen, they pretty much mean "the part of Pilsen that's gentrifying." That's right, other people in the neighborhood are actually as dumb as me and really do believe that. It goes both ways too, like when I hear East Pilsners who live in Pods talk about friends moving "all the way out" to Blue Island.

I don't pay much attention to intercensal numbers because they so often turn out to be significantly off, as I'm sure you know.

Let me ask you this: by your own admission, you are not exactly plugged into the daily scene in Pilsen. Why are you so sure of yourself? Do you know how silly your words would sound to people who live in East Pilsen or the people who are leaving it?

Irish: nobody ever really knows what to call the industrial stretches, huh. My response is who cares. Pilsen goes to at least Canal, east of that you'll never go unless you work there anyway.

Looks like you have to copy and paste that whole URL because the hyperlink part cuts off.

I ride through Pilsen on my yak and my impression is that north of 22nd and east of Ashland is gentrifying rather rapidly. The further north and east you go the more apparent it is.

Abner,

do you agree with that or where do you see the change? In reality I only go through there a few times a year so I am by no means an expert.

Since neighborhoods may appear very different at different times of the day someone who lives there may be a good judge of what is going on. At 3 pm you may have one group hanging out and at 6 pm you may have the downtown workers coming home.

Abner,

I couldn't get the link to work, and removed it because it was causing formatting probmes here) but don't doubt you on it. MCIC shows Halsted as the boundary between 3102 and 3103.

I don't see you disputing my reading of the Census numbers - I was checking 3101 and 3102, which cover most of East Pilsen. I agree that the interim numbers don't often seem to make sense, but they're as credible as "casual empiricism." You're correct - I didn't get the reference.

What words of mine sound so silly? You haven't responded to my request to identify just what I said about Pilsen that you found so negative.

I've seen little physical change in Pilsen over a 20-year span. That's my perception. It's not like Wicker Park. That's my perception. I think a good case can be made for both of those propositions.

Is that a putdown of Pilsen? I don't read it that way.

IrishPirate,
Yeah, it is mostly east of Ashland and definitely north of Cermak. Though even west of Ashland you can see some signs of change like Cafe Aorta. Please clean up after your yak next time.

Joe,
Tract 3104, not 3102. You could be missing it because it's an oddly-shaped tract. I recommend just checking the maps at census.gov.

I suppose I am referring to a general pattern of commentary with my "putdown" remark, such as the video of that 18th and Oakley thug with the "Pilsen residents, meet your neighbors" comment. There is a strong "Geez, who would ever want to live THERE?" tone to it. IrishPirate, dear to you though he is, I think has commented on the same underlying thing when you talk about Uptown (I think your comments on Uptown are a little more balanced and better informed though).

Joe, would you agree that businesses are a reasonable marker of how far gentrification has already progressed? If you pay attention to the retail mix in Pilsen, you will find that it is starting to move somewhat toward a relatively higher-end market. Not so much around Halsted, since that is almost all owned by Podmajersky and reserved for his art galleries (there are somewhat more of those than there used to be, too), but farther west on 18th. Mundial, Soy Organic (an organic bodega), Cafe Aorta, and a bunch of clothing stores have all popped up in the last couple of years. This is in addition to Jumping Bean, Cafe Mestizo, the Skylark over on Halsted, etc. These businesses are mostly locally owned and depend to some extent on longtime residents, but they also cater to the new crowd.

By the way, I never said it looks like Wicker Park–Pilsen is older, and looks it–but the underlying social forces are somewhat similar to those in WP a few decades ago. Of course, for a long time people denied there was anything of lasting significance happening there, too.

Abner,

You're weaving a generic pattern from a very few isolated data points. Look ar some of my Pilsen videos on YouTube for data points that don't fit your pattern.

I'm a Pilsen skeptic rather than a Pilsen basher. Pilsen is one of those communities that generates a lot more noise than signal from strongly differing constituencies. I'm trying not to listen to the noise.

I agree with you that there's been some progress in retail / dining in Pilsen but disagree with you as to its significance.

18th Street is a destination for a broader trading area rather than a neighborhood-service strip - similar to Chinatown or Greek Town. It doesn't depend on local gentry to survive. I'd want to ask the local businesses how much of a factor those gentry are.

In the interests of full disclosure, I do have a bit of a thing about Pilsen since the sketchier parts of it remind me so very much of where I lived in New Jersey as a teenager.

Abner,

I do think that Joe Zekas tends to write off too many neighborhoods with a variation of "(insert name of neighborhood here) doesn't look any different to me that it did (insert 20-30 year time frame). He clearly has done it with Uptown with varying degrees of seriousness and other hoods such as Pilsen and Rogers Park. Often times he is right if you just examine the "look" of commercial streets. The thing is much of the initial change happens on non-arterial streets and isn't as readily apparent. I can remember the corner of Broadway and Wilson from the 70's and it really doesn't seem much different now. However, the overall neighborhood itself has changed dramatically. Hell, we don't even break into double digits for murders anymore.

My experience with Pilsen is very limited, but my impression is that there is a dramatic demographic change going on in the eastern end of the hood. I guess we need to wait till the 2010 census comes out because I find the mid decade mini censuses to be horribly flawed.

In 1995 the census bureau had the black and hispanic population of Uptown going up. It was clear at the time they were way off. In 2000 the actual census showed a small drop in the black population and a 50 percent drop in the hispanic population. They somehow "missed" that. They also predicted the population of the city as a whole would go down. It went up.

Two words that don't go together are Chicagoist and good discussion, but here is a discussion from last year they had on Pilsen. I remembered it because there "moron" writer used the term 'whitewash' regarding East Pilsen. I don't think he understands how offensive that is.

Chicagoist post with some good Pilsen discussion.

Irishpirate,

I'd like to note that I've been largely silent on the subject of Uptown for quite some time.

Ditto for Rogers Park. Check the twenty-two YouTube videos I shot in Rogers Park last September over a two-day period and you'll note that most of them were not on the arterials.

Oh come on. 22 videos. As some UIC guy might say "big whoop".

I do recall watching at least some of those vids and I agree you have been quiet recently on Uptown and Rogers Park. There is always chance for a relapse though. I'll look at them again. I seem to recall one got some play over at the MorseHellHole.

Is it changing? Sort of. Kind of. Maybe. Will. It reminds me of the way East Village changed in the late 1980's seemingly invisibly. New owners come, quietly fix, investors buy up buildings, renovate, and rent them to young hipsters. Cool little private thrifts open, the grocery store gets better products. All of this is happening in Pilsen. The renters are increasingly young American emigres fresh out of college. The parade at 6 from the EL becomes more "professional", you can buy great food at La Casa del Pueblo, but maybe the sign most of all is that the restaurant that opened on Damen back when is now opening a restaurant on 18th. The Northside which was an early settler to the revived Damen Ave in Wicker and then opened the Black Beetle is now opening the 18th Street Cafe at 18th and Morgan. Meanwhile the old businesses that don't respond to the new reality starve. BomBon is opening a cafe at 18th and Allport and a fancy 160 seat Italian Restaurant is going in kitty korner in Thalia Hall.

Podmajersky has been holding it back. Solis ditto. The loft on 16th across from Union Row would have converted if not for the 21% set aside. The other lofts west of Halsted would have also if not for the alderman not allowing zoning changes. I still think this may have been the cause of two of them burning down. Kimball Hill's numbers didn't work for Centro given the 21% and their bankruptcy didn't help. At times the building permit department seemed to be treating applicants differently on projects in Pilsen based on their last name.

Essentially as the voters change the pressure on the Alderman reverses and many of these conversions will then proceed. It remains the closest city neighborhood, to the loop, with R4 Zoning that hasn't redeveloped. All a matter of time.

Some of the recent rehabs are amazing. A single family on 18th Place rocks. The best renovation I have seen in ages. 6 Car Garage single family with a garden unit. Unbelievable.

Oh and by the way, historically the area East of Halsted and West of Canal was referred to as Prague. It had newspapers and an identity as such in the late 1800's and I know of one very elderly couple that still refer to it as such, Praha Indeed.

Joe, just out of curiosity what planning in Portland do you like? A friend here moved there a few years to rehab/flip and loves the place (he lived in Logan Square for 40 years)

Carter,

What impressed me about Portland was the intensely pedestrian focus in the downtown area, and the visual variety you experience as a pedestrian there. That didn't happen by accident.

The second thing that struck me about Portland was the proximity of high-density downtown areas to forested areas.

Wow Joe, it sounds as though Pilsen IS CHANGING. Were you aware of any of the changes going on? Slav sure has his ear to the grindstone. And you?

UICstudent,

As usual, you have difficulty reading. I don't question PilsenSlav's nuanced view of what is happening - or his / her cautions about the pace of change and the prospects for future change.

I've been hearing exactly these ear-on-the-ground reports for quite some time. My simple contention is that, so far, they haven't resulted in significant change.

I'm in complete agreement with PilsenSlav's view on whether Pilsen is changing: "Sort of. Kind of. Maybe."

PilsenSlav seems to be banking, to some extent, on change in the mix of voters resulting in a different set of pressures on the alderman. Look at the margin by which the recent downzoning referendum passed and you'll note that the mix of voters has to change dramatically for that to happen.

The interesection of Sangamon and Cullerton where you see nothing I see opportunity. All of the lots on the South side of the street were recently rezoned R4 as they were M2-3 lots even where the houses are. That's a dozen lots in the pipeline for development when the market turns. That is the big if, when. Until that day the pace of rehab goes on as buildings become available at prices that make sense.

A large Senior Citizen development is going up on the southern horizon of Cullerton over by the Health Clinic and the train tracks will be converted to a linear park I think using TIF monies. That little piece of the neighborhood will be beautiful in the coming years.

I liked the interiors of the Cullerton building, nice wide units. Those lofts across the way will make for some nice units in the future. The longer it all stalls the more high end it will be.

PilsenSlav,

Add those lots to the hundreds that have been in the Pilsen pipeline for - how long now?

In your experience are senior citizen developments and health clinics generally a sign of a thriving community on the threshold of positive change? That hasn't been my experience.

Please don't mistake where I'm coming from. I'd love to see Pilsen redeveloped. It's a community with many physical assets and advantages.

It is, however, in competition for development with many other neighborhoods in Chicago that have their own set of assets. Over the years we've seen development in a number of those areas while development in Pilsen has lagged.

Assuming you agree that development has been slow to occur in PIlsen, what factors would you attribute that to?

I have no trouble reading. You do. People have pointed out the ongoing changes that have been going on, and one need look no further than the businesses going in. Businesses do not go in until there is a sizeable population of people who will frequent the businesses. These are not your bodegas going in. These are restaurants, bars, boutiques and record stores. These are the kinds of businesses that point to a change in the demographics of the population. Is it the critical mass? Of course not. But between the momentum of the university, the cost of rentals in Wicker Park, Lincoln Park, Taylor Street and the South Loop, a different mix of people are moving in. And that mix of people is what business owners recognize as an opportunity. Unless the rest of the businesses adapt, they will continue to die. La Casa Pueblo is an excellent example. They carry everything, from Mexican specialties to that of the working professionals. 160 seat Italian restaurants don't go into poor neighborhoods. North side restaurants don't go into ethnic neighborhoods that don't want them. Trendy boutiques don't go into areas where people are living in the past.

Further, is crime down in Pilsen? Are murders, armed robberies and shootings down from 10 years ago? Go ahead and tell me that they aren't. Go ahead and tell the people who live there that they haven't. You're a statistical wizard, dig something up.

Forget about the hype you heard when the Pods bought the east side of Pilsen 30 years ago. That part of your argument is true, and it was a tough nut to crack. But it's finally happening. In a timeframe not too different from Wicker Park.

In your attack on me, you also conveniently forgot to put Slav's words into your quotes. That words was "Will." And you wonder why people attack you for bending statistics to fit your whatever argument you find yourself in at the moment?

UICstudent,

All right, I'll add the "Will." Everything changes to some extent - Pilsen will change. Will it become what you envision, and when, are separate questions. PilsenSlav recognized that, I believe.

You're the one citing decreased crime statistics, which places the onus no you to do something you studiously avoid: provide facts. Just because you assert something doesn't obligate me to waste my time to disprove you. I don't know whether those crimes are down, and whether they are isn't terribly relevant to my views here. They're part of your argument: prove it. And then show that it has some relevane to the discussion.

A few business openings don't tell me anything about what's going on in the immediate area. I noted above my view that 18th St is a destination strip for a larger trading area and that I'd have to learn from the businesses involved whether they are depending on local support. You simply assume it out of thin air.

What relevance does the cost of rentals in other parts of the city have to the question of where people who can't afford those areas will choose to locate?

I think the question is not whether Pilsen is changing, but at what speed the change will occur.

Again, Joe Zekas seems to see the city and various neighborhoods as a "zero sum game" where they are all competing against one another. I think it is a bit more complex than that and that job growth and larger economic factors are more the issue.

I think the comparison to "East Village" was very good. There was a bit of a "buzz" regarding the changes there, but it largely occurred under the radar.

I would expect a slow relatively steady change in East Pilsen. As one idiot writer at Chicagoist put it in a pejortative fashion "whitewashing". The location is excellent and given the prospect of higher fuel prices areas near downtown will likely do better. Also the lower rents will appeal to those who were 'zero summed" outta other hoods.

Last time I saw any data it showed that Mexican immigrants were almost as likely to settle in suburban areas as the city. The next census data will be interesting.

We are potentially looking at a city with a significantly lower black population, a slower increase in the hispanic population and a relative increase in the number of voting age white folks.

The alderbeast can slow any change in Pilsen, but he won't be able to stop it. If it was possible to stop gentrification Alderbeast Shiller in the 46th Ward would have figured out how to a decade ago. Plus once developers start waving "donations" around many alderthugs dance to a different style.

It also wouldn't take that many new residents to potentially scare the alderbeast into changing his tune. That or moving East Pilsen into a different ward after the next census is possible. You could potentially have a ward that was 25% percent non hispanic and 75% largely hispanic immigrants and the 25% could actually have more eligible voters due to age and citizenship issues.

The next redistricting is likely to be particularly nasty because of the changing demographics city wide. You will likely see black aldermen in particular trying to design ward maps with 65-70 percent black populations and the rest made up of white and hispanics in an effort to maintain 18 majority black wards. Last census there were 19 majority black wards although the 18th had a pasty faced white guy named Murphy as alderbeast. Now the 18th has a black alderbeast and the 2nd has Alderattorney and Mayoral Wannabee Fioretti.

If you want to amuse yourselves check out the "lengths" the aldermen went to after the last census to create silly looking wards made up of their individually preferred racial groups.

Amusing ward maps with lotsa strange shapes.

The first 3 wards are particularly interesting as the mapmakers strove to maintain political power among groups that lived in relative proximity to one another.

Easier Ward Map Overview.

Irishpirate,

One major problem with your demographics: Chicago's White NonHispanic population, according to the figures at MCIC, is projected to fall from 907,166 in 2000 to 774,441 in 2010. The Black population also is projected to drop, but by a much smaller amount. The Hispanic population, 753,644 is 2000, is projected to grow to 877,214 by 2010. Those numbers don't square with your analysis.

I realize these numbers are not the final word, but they're the best we have.

What would I attribute the pace of change to? The tipping point, of course. We haven't reached it. To be serious Pilsen was about to pop, big, and then the Real Estate cycle went bust. Same thing happened in East Village during the last bust around 92 and then bam. The bust actually does it good as it moderated prices. It has significantly quieted down here culturally. A lot less kids. The schools on the Eastern edge are now underpopulated. Podmajersky's grandfather's house sold and is now under renovation. They finally sold one! 6 Units and a coachhouse. Several other old family buildings have also recently sold and gone under renovation. Thalia Hall's apartments are fully leased at $1700. to $2600. per unit. Many of the better rental buildings have already been bought and renovated and repopulated.

This isn't and is Wicker Park. The same cultural divergence causes it but the built environment is much different, is some ways better (density for example), and it will land differently. The early stages of blitzkrieg are not easy to notice and take a lot of time to take hold. As late as the year 2000 many would have said East Village hadn't changed significantly. The outside view is skewed. I noticed the Yo's flickr set showed cultural artificats from the last wave and little of the new. Yo took a picture of a dilapidated house next to my stunning beautiful one. On every street the same, mostly photos of the downtrodden, the old Spanish signs, it's all the picture one wants to paint.

Let's face it, Location Location Location. By 2015 the Coal Burning Power Plant will close, constituents will demand continued improvement, industrial vestiges will dissappear. It will change. The Senior Citizen Building actually frames the neighborhood off from the Cermak industry so yes it has an impact. It changes the view from Cullerton Corners. The linear park next to it will do the same. The tree planting is starting to take hold. Zoning changes will come.

It's odd how driven this discussion is by race. There you miss it. Pilsen is not about turning more Eurocentric but about turning more wealthy. The Asians and Hispanics will play a role in this. The Chinese will be a big surprise on the Eastern Edge. It's income not race. I always have said the the term "gentrification" was racial and both sides of the debate unfortunately always seem to prove it.

Joe,

I think the white population will drop. However, I think I said "relative increase" in voting age population. Which is a bit different. I may very well be wrong.

I'm not sure about the hispanic population. My somewhat ill informed guess is that it will go up, but by less than the MCIC projected as immigration seems to be down and many hispanics are moving to the suburbs and skipping Chicago entirely.

One thing I am relatively sure of is a big drop in the black population. One of my friends is an 'academic' at a certain prestigious South Side institution of higher learning based in Hyde Park and he devotes a good portion of his life to studying the changing demographics of 'da great City of Chic caw gah".

What he believes is that the black population in the city will drop by 150-200 thousand people in the next census largely because of the "depopulation" of various south and west side neighborhoods and the movement of the black middle class to suburbs and the "deep south". Couple that with the elimination of virtually all CHA highrises and the movement of a portion of that population to non city areas and we MAY be seeing an interesting social and political dynamic.

I guess time will tell, but in 2000 he was very close to the final numbers that the census projected. He flat out said that the speculation that the city lost population was wrong. My memory is that he was one of the few who got that right.

He's not happy about it as he sees it as diminishing black political power and the potential to ameliorate certain social problems. He lives in Bronzeville and spends a good deal of is time coaching youth leagues and trying to make his bit of the world a better place.

I guess we will know in a few years. If the MCIC is basing their projections using the same methods as the mid decade census I have little faith in their numbers.

The datasets he uses are based on voting rolls, government benefits, school data, housing data regarding new construction, renovation and tear downs that aren't replaced and more that I'm likely forgetting.

One thing I know he uses is this from the Chicago Public Schools or something very similar.

Racial breakdown of Chicago Public Schools.

If those numbers are accurate the black population in the public schools went from around 230,000 to around 185,000 in a ten year period. Just in the last year reported it dropped 10 thousand. If my math is correct that is just over 20 percent.

If you project that for the population as a whole, which is problematic, his numbers are spot on.

PilsenSlav,

as you might put it gentrification is and isn't racial. How's that for a non answer.

There is some convergence of race, income and gentrification. That is something for another post.

I generally think your 'take' on Pilsen and it's future is more likely right than wrong. As I said earlier 'time will tell'.

What effects the pace of change of lower income neighborhoods on the verge of redevelopment? Well for Pilsen specifically here is my all too short and inconclusive rundown:

The age of the owners. Many of Pilsen's owners are elderly and bought in the 1960's and early 1970's. They are now reaching an age of retiring to Senior Citizen housing options which will increase the turnover of OWNERS.

Property Taxes push harder than a fist in moving people out. As they rise the lower income residents who bought on the cheap sell and move on to cheaper pastures while those holding disinvested substandard housing have to sell or renovate as the rents no longer cover the carrying costs.

Cultural Pride plays a significant role in the populace of Pilsen and many hang on because of it and resist any change longing for the romantic past that has moved on. The Si Renta signs are slowly giving way to For Rent signs. The hold outs are not only Mexican, count some Lithuanians and Poles, an occassional Yugoslav and Czech amongst them. Some with significant holdings that fly under the radar of the Pod focus.

The illegal immigrant rental base has played a significant role in allowing landlords to overcharge for housing in a condition most Americans would not consider at the price. This "trapped" rental base is dissolving.

Aldermanic perogative has significantly slowed the ability of developers when a zoning change is needed. This ward isn't the pay and play place other wards are. Here you have to pay, play, promise, and give until the numbers make no sense.

Interestingly enough Union Row is in another ward. That development would never have occurred if it was on the other side of the street.

irishpirate,

I don't know what to make of the school numbers - there are so many variables that can affect public school enrollment. Enrollment in all types of schools would be more meaningful.

The public school enrollment numbers show an overall decrease in the public school population during the period they cover.

If a decline in black student population argues for a decline in overall black population in the city, why doesn't the decline in aggregate public school enrollment translate to a decline in population in the city?

They do show a decrease but the rate of decrease in the black population is about 4 times the overall decrease. The overall decrease was just under 5 percent. It also shows a slight drop in the white student population and a significant increase in the hispanic student population.

Again with dropouts and everything else that is only one piece of a complicated puzzle and a piece that will not give an overall answer. Maybe the district changed the way they count or don't count dropouts among other potential problems.

The mid decade "census" projects a drop in the overall city population in 2010. If that turns out to be true, a BIG IF, the majority of that drop will likely be blacks and a significant number of whites.

My own guess, and it is worth what it is costing you to read this, is that the hispanic population goes slightly up, the white population remains relatively stable, and the black population goes down significantly.

One interesting potential change is a drop in the white population under 18 and over 65 with an increase in the 18-45 year old crowd.

I guess we will just have to continue this discussion in 2011.

Once again, Joe avoids the topic of Pilsen. He doesn't know anything, just some ill-crafted videos he found on Youtube. Just. Plain. Ridiculous. (try shaving that quote, Joe Joe).

UIC student,

shouldn't you be studying while your older betters are drinking, eating pizza and playing on the net?

Really you are taking the Zekas' comments on Pilsen way too personally.

PIlsenSlav,

Pilsen Census tracts 3102 – 05 had fewer than 600 residents aged 60 and above per the 2000 census. Owner-occupied units in those tracts represented just shy of 30% of the housing stock. Not large enough numbers to drive wholesale change even if all of the owner-occupants age out of the area or out of existence.

I also look at several other factors when considering an area's potential for redevelopment. The amount and zoning of vacant land ripe for development is one of them.

Pilsen's had a significant amount of development-ready vacant land that hasn't gone anywhere. Ditto for the number of properties that were undersized in terms of their zoning potential - i.e. larger buildings could be built on them without requesting zoning changes and running into the alderman. Lots of potential; very little actualization of it during the recent period of booming new construction.

The quality of the existing housing stock is another major consideration. Much of Pilsen's is in bad shape and functionally and economically obsolescent.

Unlike other neighborhoods Pilsen has significant environmental issues due to the volume and nature of industry in the area and its past history.

Institutions are a major consideration. Pilsen has no major institutional anchors unless you count the adjacent UIC campus.

Cultural pride does play a major role in Pilsen, and much of that pride is focused on making Pilsen a Mexican community and deterring change.

We can go back and forth in this vein to no firm conclusions - only time will tell what's in Pilsen's future.

Yeah, Zekas is the king of skeptics, always half empty. He'd never make a dime as an agent, too busy bringing up the potential negatives.

"Yeah I guess it's a nice unit but the view isn't that good, they could have used better fixtures, I am not sure about the neighbors, I think there might be gangs around here. Oh you like it? You sure? Maybe we should look at something in Lincoln Park on the Lake with steady but typical appreciation. This area may never reach it's potential in my lifetime, your young but I'm not. It reminds me too much of the place I grew up."

C'mon Zekas. Get a grip. Development in the last boom period was focused on near in North, Northwest, West, and Near South areas many with R4 zoning. It was also focused on areas with "properties that were undersized in terms of their zoning potential". The last cycle was not Pilsen's. Pilsen was not adjacent to development. So what. At the beginning of the last cycle Pilsen was hemmed in by the River and the trashed out Maxwell Street and ABLA. The whole northern edge has now changed. It is no longer cut off.

It is now spitting distance from a Whole Foods. You express the negatives as negative when they are positive. "Much of Pilsen's (housing stock) is in bad shape and functionally and economically obsolescent." Is it going to just rot and stay here? Someone will replace it. The land went nowhere because it wasn't time. Developers were too busy in Wicker, Bucktown, E Village, and would have been running ripshod south of Chicago except for the R3 Zoning. The West Loop. Oh my.

Adjacency. Location. The next boom cycle will prove you wrong in your analysis. The environmental issues here are mute. Not much to speak of different than anywhere else. Typical lead soil levels but we are not an agricultural community.

Pilsen Slav,

you have gone from making some valid and interesting comments to becoming a Pilsen "booster".

Although some of your newer comments are amusing. Sometimes alcohol does help, huh?

Now regarding Pilsen I suspect Joe Zekas would not even acknowledge the glass exists or at least has a crack in it.

"Pilsen Census tracts 3102 – 05 had fewer than 600 residents aged 60 and above per the 2000 census. Owner-occupied units in those tracts represented just shy of 30% of the housing stock."

I love that. Math was never your strong suit was it? What percentage of the owners of that 30% were over 60? That is the question. Most of the elderly own and rent to the other 70%. Most buildings are 3 or more units.

There are not that many buildings in Pilsen east of Ashland. The core of development will occur east of Ashland first. The Lower West Side is small and has very specific bleed barriers, a River, a viaduct with the IMD North of it, and Western Avenue. Areas which are adjacent and hemmed in without bleed do quite well over the long haul.

I know I hate when I become a booster, I rather remain objective but three beers in and I show my wear.

PilsenSlav,

The booster's out of the closet and playing 76 trombones.

Been to Bridgeport any time recently? Chinatown? Seen the amount of development that's occurred there in the last 10 years? Were they adjacent to anything in the way you contended Pilsen needed to be?

Pilsen's environment is far from typical and is a genuine issue. Some of the more serious problems are diminishing, but are far from moot.

I'm not very good at seeing the future, but I don't expect that next boom cycle to happen very soon.

PilsenSlav,

Just saw your latest. Now you're just making stuff up.

As to the length of the elderly's tenure in Pilsen - only 270 householders in the tracts I mentioned were there before 1980.

What's your basis for saying that most of the elderly own and rent to the others? I'm betting you don't have one beyond pulling it out of thin air.

The best data available - the recent housing survey that you can and should look up - has a firm majority of units in Pilsen owned by absentee landlords. That's long been the case in Pilsen.

Either a building-by-building survey is wrong or you are.

This is not a Pilsen related comment, but I have been looking at the MCIC data projections while drinking cheap red wine and even with alcohol it makes little sense.

There is NO way their projections are even close to being right on the north lakefront areas from Lincoln Park to Rogers Park. They project a significant drop in the white population in each hood and increases in black, hispanic and Asian populations. It seems like somehow the trends that have been going on at various times since the 70's and into the year 2000 have suddenly reversed between 2000-2005.

They also seem to be minimizing the drop in population in some south side neighborhoods. From 1990-2000 the census showed large drops and now MCIC is showing population dropping at a rate maybe one-tenth of the former rate. Something ain't right and it ain't just my alcohol talkin'.

No way. I'm guessing they use the mid term census numbers and if that is so history is NOT on their side.

Hell they are even off on the number of projected owner occupied units in Uptown. Just in the last few years on 3 blocks we have added nearly 1/4 the units they project for the entire neighborhood over five years.

They stink worse than the Bush administrations explanations for the Iraq War, well maybe not that much, and Hillary Clinton's sniper dodging comments.

I need a Guinness. The numbers will still stink, but I won't notice.

Bridgeport and Chinatown were adjacent to China. The influx and return of ethnic Americans of Chinese background played a large part in driving that market and the development. Richland Realty, anyone? Of course Richland will play a role in expanding Chinatown into the eastern fringe of Pilsen with their development on Canal.

Your cannot negate the effect of ABLA and a slummed out Maxwell Street on the northern border of Pilsen seperating it from the rest of Chicago. There was no way most buyers were driving thru that to get home. The last "boom" cycle saw massive redevelopment of those census tracts. Quite likely the most concentrated redevelopment in the whole city. University Village? Who heard of that before now?

In 1995 areas west of Western were written off as too far from the center of "Wicker Park" and now the path of progress is fully under way on it's march up the Milwaukee corridor to Logan Square. Adjacency plays a large role in redevelopment. Lill Street in Lincoln Park? Maud!! Who would have imagined that slum street becoming what it is today?

During the boom we saw all sorts of development built in the most absurd locations without adjacency. Much of it struggles.

I stand by my premise that well located center city neighborhoods with adjacency will continue to see improvement and increasing wealth of the inhabitants during this century. Soceital forces continue to point to it.

PilsenSlav,

Funny you should mention Maud Street to support your argument. It's a whole two blocks long rather than a neighborhood the size of Pilsen.

I happen to know the story of Maud pretty well since I did a gut-rehab of a block-long project one block away between Kenmore and Seminary on Armitage and officed and lived in it from 1981 to 1986.

I also owned two lots on Maud that I'd bought for $10k each at a time when lots a short block north on Kenmore and Seminary were selling for $100k+. At the time I also bought options on another dozen lots on Maud and had a talented architect draw plans for single-family homes on the lots that I could build and sell at a profit at prices ranging from $139k to $159k. After years of no takers I sold my lots for $20k apiece (needed the cash) and let the options expire.

Maud's a story of multiple adjacencies. A block walk to the Armitage El and shops. A short walk to DePaul, etc. etc. All those adjacencies were irrelevant in the minds of buyers who focused on the street itself, its black residents, the Chicago Boiler factory at the north end of it, the blight along the 1800 and 1900 blocks of Sheffield at the time and the barrenness of Clybourn Avenue.

Maud changed only after it had been enveloped by change. It might have changed faster if the few residents had supported my petition to change the name of the street to Winding Oak Lane, but there was a guy who had an aunt named Maude and more influence than I did.

Replicate Maud Street 100 times and you've got a fair approximation of Pilsen, but lacking in many of the other factors that retard development in Pilsen. Time will tell us how quickly PIlsen changes. Adjacency tells us nothing about it.

Adjacency has a lot to do with it. The vacant lots you speak of are centered in one corner of Southeast Pilsen that was primarily industrial. Cullerton Corners is not a great location as is. It is kind of desolate. But the location does have potential in the future. Only time will tell just how long it takes.

Your other quips are amusing. In a video last year, you touted location, location, location. Pilsen has location written all over it. It also has a familial relationship to Bridgeport. The two together have more artsy-types than any other part of the city. And why? It's a relative steal with lots of great spaces. Many people have pointed out the new businesses opening. Those businesses would not be opening if it business owners actually felt that they have an opportunity to do well in the area. Will some fail? Of course. But well-intentioned businesses fail all over the city all of the time. But the new businesses point to an upward shift and a change in demographics. You say that the gentry have very little impact on the neighborhood businesses. Ask the people running those businesses. And then ask yourself why someone would open a restaurant or boutique to cater to outsiders if the outsiders don't feel safe to begin with? Is Pilsen Disneyland? Of course not. But it has gotten a lot better. Crime is down. Murders, assaults and other crimes are down. If you can dispute that, please do so.

Otherwise, stop slamming a neighborhood you know nothing about.

Wow, my comments are now being blocked!

Ah Joe, Pilsen isn't as bad as all that. Maud was really wild. We can't strike a candle to that on our worst street which isn't as bad as East Village was a few scant years ago at Wolcott and Division. Both directions was a friggin disaster. Even too wild for me! Remember that Street of burnt out junkie ridden violence? I too frequented Maud back in the early 80s. A punk rocker friend lived on a corner in a storefront, I thought it was wonderful, too. A great location which of course it turned out to be.

We basically agree on change but you obviously folded too quickly then and maybe it has made you gun shy. I'm patient. You see change in the immediate I see it over the long haul. My time frames for change are twenty years, a relative blip. Over the long haul Pilsen will be swallowed into the center of wealth. This city, my city, yours, Chicago ain't going back to those hog butcher days. I hold great hope for the streets of Lawndale. Douglas Park will come back and thrive. Swallow that. So will Garfield. This change will keep going despite the lulls in the Real Estate market, one adjacent area at a time.

Your view of what matters is relevant, I understand that you have no interest in living in the wilds, last time it obviously didn't work out and some would rather have immediate gratification. I on the other hand like to be a 5 minute bike ride from Grant Park and Abramowicz. I love the new corridor of national shopping options springing up on Roosevelt. I love the Circle Line on the horizon. The Olympic Pool in Douglas Park, the growing IMD. Talk about an institutional anchor, what beats that? You see what was, I see what will be.

Your analysis is too short. Who are those absentees? Lots of the same ones who bought Wicker early, lots of elderly folks who fled but kept the old homestead, and lots of people who live here and own a few. What did they say of the forest for the trees? Pilsen may not be the place of the moment, nor Lawndale, but on the near or far horizon they will be.

One makes money when one buys real estate, not when one sells it. If you buy right you always make money unless you buy the dream but not the land. Even your Maud investment paid off though not as handsomely as it could have.

UICstudent,

It's a wonder that you're in college given your level of reading comprehension. Compare your statements about what I've said with what I've said - no relationship.

You brought up the issue of crime. As I've said before the ball's in your court to back up yuor statements, not in mine to disprove them when I haven't contested them.

The spam filter nailed one of your comments. Perhaps you mistyped your phony e-mail address or used a different IP address. Our system dumps any new or suspicious commenter into a filter. Nothing was done to block you by anyone here.

PilsenSlav,

You're setting up a straw man or are completely delusional.

Maud street was not a "wild" place or a tough place, and I was on it hundreds and hundreds of times and a block away from it virtually every day for years. Sorry, but that point of differentiation just doesn't cut it.

Everything looks different over the long haul. DePaul worked out well for me, despite your imagination of what my experience was there. I did a dozen deals in the area, not just Maud Street.

I began my real estate development career in the 1800 and 1900 blocks of Halsted in 1978 - another area with golden adjacencies. Was in there over a 10-year time frame and did OK, but left with no delusions about the pace of change or the reality of living through it.

You make a very good point of how money is made in real estate - in buying right and in taking a long view. But that's only part of the game, not the whole of it. Over a 20-year time horizon you're likely to make money in Pilsen, but that will be true of a lot of places.

Pilsen has many an absentee landlord of a very different sort than WP did, but I'm not going to belabor that point.

The city needs a lot more people with your attitude, and I applaud you for it. Attitude can make things come to pass … sometimes.

You want to make money in Pilsen? That was easy. You didn't need twenty years for that, you could have done that in weeks. The boom years were full of it. Look at the medians over the past ten years, the speculative slime were out in full force. That's a part of real estate I have always loathed, take take take. One guy I knew bought and sold over 25 Pilsen area buildings in a few short years, put nothing in, took it all out and only almost got burned on the last few. Almost. The speculative bubble got so severe that my next door neighbor paid 320K for a teardown frame on a short lot. His first house. Pure greed and negligence on the part of the Banking industry. He thought he would "make money". I tried to tell him as his inspector shook his head. I would have paid 100K to tear it down and have a garden. He instead got a first sub prime at 255K and a second sub prime (both out of California) at 65K with two additonal signatories and the seller, gladly I suppose, paid closing costs. He'd bought it a two years earlier for 65K. I still may buy it for 100K as foreclosure is a likely scenario.

That's not me. We don't need to make money from our house. We have careers. While I enjoy the market of real estate I only make money from it by choosing well only if I choose to sell. I think I'll just retire here and the good by then will be better. This is our third choice of neighborhoods, the two we left (quite profitably) we could never afford anything we wanted in then or now but we sold what wasn't what we wanted long term at a tidy profit and moved to what we wanted.

We chose Pilsen for many reasons, a great well built intact historic building at a terrific price (6,000 Square feet of glorious Quarter Sawn Oak interiors with massive sized rooms and limestone exteriors at less than $50.00 a square foot), adjacency to transportation, a five minute commute to work in the IMD for my spouse, a short cab to the Opera, a great local grocery store, old friends and community, great access to restaurants, access to Midway Airport, a growing retail base on Roosevelt, the EL, a short bike ride to many speciality food stores, Randolph Street nightlife, a local independent bookstore, walking distance to Maxwell Street market, a short ride to Asian specialty stores, three great fabric stores, Millenium Park concerts, damn good mochas, ready access to great Thrift Stores in Little Village and Bridgeport, ethnic parades including an annual march of Christ, being on the marathon route, emerging artists, the Northwest Train station, Greektown, Little Italy, Chinatown, Healthy Food!, oh and tater tots at Skylark not to mention a fantastic view of one of the last coal burning power plants in it's final years. Ah, Pilsen. It's already all good.

On that note, let's put this thread to rest.